Predictive Modelling Analyst - Band 7


Company:	NHS Jobs
Salary:	£49,387 to £56,515 a year
Hours:	Full-time
Location:	Chelmsford, CM1 1QH
Job type:	Permanent
Posting date:	8 Oct 2026
Closing date:	21 Oct 2026

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Summary

ROLE PURPOSE / SUMMARY The Essex Integrated Care Board (ICB) is a new organisation formed through the consolidation of three ICB areas in response to the NHSs ambition to deliver a more streamlined, strategic and cost-effective model of health commissioning. The ICB will oversee the commissioning of care for the approximately 2 million people who live in Essex. Operating within a reduced running cost envelope and aligned to the new requirements of ICBs in England, the ICB will focus on improving population health outcomes, health equity and smarter resource allocation. The Predictive Modelling Analyst will be responsible for delivering advanced predictive modelling and statistical analysis to support strategic commissioning, population health insight and service planning across the ICB. . The postholder will apply quantitative and statistical methods to support forecasting, risk stratification, and analytical insight, working closely with population health, evaluation, and commissioning colleagues to inform decision making. The Predictive Modelling Analyst will be required to: Develop and apply predictive and statistical models to support forecasting, risk stratification, service planning, and commissioning decision-making. Use statistical and analytical programming tools (e.g. R, Python) to analyse large, complex health and care datasets. Apply appropriate quantitative methods to generate robust analytical insight, ensuring assumptions and limitations are clearly documented and communicated. Work closely with population health, evaluation, and commissioning colleagues to ensure modelling outputs are appropriately interpreted and applied. Provide quantitative analytical input to support wider analytical, population health, and evaluation work, where required. Produce clear, high-quality analytical outputs, including reports, visualisations, and briefings, tailored to a range of audiences. Support compliance with information governance, data protection, and data sharing requirements. Make effective use of ICB data platforms and analytical environments in line with agreed standards and guidance. Prioritise and manage own workload to deliver agreed outputs to time and quality. Contribute to a collaborative analytical and population health intelligence team, sharing knowledge and supporting continuous improvement in analytical practice. As the ICB transitions to become a leaner, more focused strategic commissioning organisation the post holder will be expected to support the ICB in delivering on the three fundamental shifts set out in the NHS 10-year plan: From Treatment to Prevention: Embedding preventative, personalised and population based approaches to commissioning. From Hospital to Community: Championing care model redesign that supports community and neighbourhood health. From Analogue to Digital: Enabling clinically driven transformation through digital innovation, data analytics and evidence based improvement. KEY DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES To deliver on the job description set out above, the job holder will be expected to deliver on the requirements set out below: Policy and service development Implement policy and / or service developments related to analytics, business intelligence and insight generation, drawing on requirements from NHS strategies, including the ICB strategy and the 10 Year Health Plan Ensure compliance with relevant ICB policies Use research, innovation and audits to inform service improvements or performance management Strategy and analysis Analysis of complex qualitative and quantitative data Turns analysis into useful insights and reports that can be used to inform decision making and delivery Present complex data, information and insights, including qualitative and quantitative data, through clear and simple written and verbal briefings Use of data and insight to contribute to reporting, including performance management, financial and quality reporting against agreed contractual or project deliverables Use of Population Health Management methodologies and tools to inform projects and programmes that will improve outcomes for patients and sustainability of health services Planning and organisation Develop and deliver project plans to support analytical and business intelligence projects, ensuring appropriate governance, risk management, escalations and reporting Managing competing priorities, prioritizing own and team resources to effectively deliver on short, medium and longer term priorities Ensure accurate reporting and records management Support delivery and monitoring of business plan for the analytical and population health intelligence unit Communications and Partnerships Work collaboratively, modelling inclusive, respectful and compassionate leadership Able to take account of a broad range of perspectives, including staff, patients and the public, to inform decision making Comfortable presenting information and training to internal and external stakeholder groups Build strong, trust-based relationships across the ICB, with NHS providers, local government, VCFSE partners and communities as needed Effective engagement with patients and the public as required Work effectively in multi-disciplinary teams to enable the collective ownership and delivery of projects that are seeking to improve outcomes, reduce inequalities and deliver a sustainable health and care system Share complex and challenging information which may relate to service performance or staffing Able to manage conflict, find compromise and persuade based on evidence as needed Financial and resource management Supports delivery of budget for the analytical and population health intelligence unit, including effective budget reporting as required Supports procurement of relevant services Team management and capability building Support effective people management within the analytical and population health intelligence unit, including supporting recruitment, onboarding, development and performance management of team members Able to influence in order to deliver effectively through those not directly line managing Support staff through ICB transition, including the development of teams to deliver on new ICB portfolios as agreed through transition Support the effective transition of relevant functions to new portfolios within or beyond the ICB to support the new NHS operating model, in line with the requirements of the Model ICB Blueprint Work collaboratively with system partners to facilitate transitional arrangements Maintain a focus on quality, safety and affordability during transition Supporting effective Information Asset Management for the team Other Use initiative and work independently as needed to deliver on requirements of the role Primarily desk-based work that requires use of visual display units, focused concentration and frequent participation in on-line or in person meetings Able to use software required to develop report, including ability to deliver high quality documents through Microsoft suite (word, power point, excel), project management software (e.g. Aspyre), analytical and statistical software (e.g. SQL, Azure, PowerBI) Flexibility and evolving responsibilities As the ICB continues to evolve, portfolios may be subject to change to reflect the needs of the organization, the health and care system and national policy direction. This may include adjustments to areas of responsibility or realignment of reporting structures. KEY RELATIONSHIPS The post holder will need to build constructive relationships with partners from across the health and care system. Key relationships will be with: ICB senior leadership Information Governance team Local Authority partners NHS Providers NHSEI regional partners Other system partners, such as VCFSE Data, BI and analytical teams in system partners, including NHS providers and local authorities

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